
Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup Tips 2012
This is the big race of the week, and its fascinating! There are so many ifs and maybes here, but this is my view and this is what I will be doing. This is between LONG RUN and KAUTO STAR who all things been equal, and combined winners of three Gold Cups are better than these by miles. Now come the buts…
- Long Run has looked a shadow of his former self, or he has been beaten by Kauto Star back to his bets
- But Kauto has been the subject of an injury scare.
- He has however come out of it fine and I think its wasn’t as serious as the media have made out, just a view.
The sensible bet is a dutch bet on Kauto Star and Long Run (ie back both) but in my view Kauto Star will regain the Gold Cup and is a great EW price now at 4/1+. Midnight Chase is the best outsider of the rest. I have to admit my heart is behind Kauto and I will cry like a baby if he wins it! Love the horse and there may be another chapter in the wonderful Kauto Star story!
Summary:
KAUTO STAR to Win the Gold Cup at 4/1 with Bet365,
MIDNIGHT CHASE Each Way at 10/1 with Bet365
|
No.
|
Colours
|
Horse
|
Form
|
Approx. Odds
|
Bet
|
Age
|
Trainer
|
Jockey
|
Rating
|
| 7 |
Long Run |
11-221 |
7/4 |
7 | Nicky Henderson | Sam Waley-Cohen | 182 | ||
| The current champion who needs to prove he can come back and defend his crown, as the doubters are definitely out in force. Not the sexiest of horses in the line up but seems quite a stuffy type and can only improve with Racing. I was lucky enough to see him at Newbury after his latest win and between then and seeing him again at Seven Barrows, he’d improved so much. He looks as if he’s peaking at the right time so be warned especially with the Henderson team on fire!! | |||||||||
| 5 |
Kauto Star |
33-P11 |
4/1 |
12 | Paul Nicholls | Ruby Walsh | 183 | ||
| What can I say about this superstar?! Well in my opinion I’ll be very lucky in my lifetime to see another like him, as he simply has it all. Paul Nicholls must feel so lucky to be handling one of the best Chaser’s of all time and the way he has bounced back this year is not only a credit to the horse but the staff down at Ditcheat. If he rocks up at Cheltenham on Friday you can be rest assured Paul will have him where he wants. For what it’s worth I think if he wins this year’s Gold Cup it will be Paul’s greatest ever training performance – by a mile!! Tip to Win | |||||||||
| 1 |
Burton Point |
21/2-2 |
7/1 |
8 | Nicky Henderson | Barry Geraghty | 166 | ||
| There was plenty of stable confidence in this son of Bob Back on his return to the track at Newbury last time out after a lengthy absence, where he was in receipt of 10lbs from his stable companion Long Run and certainly did not let his supporters down. If Nicky can derive some more improvement which there is no reason why he can’t then he’s right there in the mix. In fact he could be the one that causes a major upset. | |||||||||
| 8 |
Midnight Chase |
15-F31 |
10/1 |
10 | Neil Mulholland | Dougie Costello | 163 | ||
| Would be great for connections if he can land this contest but I personally feel he’ll set the pace and get found out when the main protagonists turn the tap on and start to race down the hill. If he finishes in the frame all involved with the horse would be over the moon. | |||||||||
| 14 |
Weird Al |
18P-13 |
11/1 |
9 | Donald McCain | Jason Macguire | 164 | ||
| Probably just short on class at this level but is a sound jumper and will give you a good run for your money. If he gets a clear round he will be doing all his best work at the finish and could sneak a place. He could be worth looking at for this year’s Grand National as he’s just the type to go well in a race of that nature. | |||||||||
| 10 |
Synchronised |
3-P731 |
10/1 |
9 | Jonjo O’Neil | Tony McCoy | 167 | ||
| Have to doubt his participation especially as the ground could be on the quick side even though he’s been declared, so if he lines up his chance must be respected as he has been handled impeccably by connections. Could be another to cause an upset and will be staying on up the hill when others are faltering. | |||||||||
| 9 |
Quel Esprit |
F-B111 |
20/1 |
8 | Willie Mullins | P Townend | 160 | ||
| Took a tumble last year when travelling well in the RSA Chase and even though he has plenty of 1’s next to his name, I genuinely feel he’ll get found out in this company. Saying that he has a touch of class so could be one for hitting the frame at decent odds. | |||||||||
| 15 |
What A Friend |
24P-33 |
25/1 |
9 | Paul Nicholls | Daryl Jacob | 165 | ||
| Now a horse who could actually run a massive race under what looks ideal conditions, so it may be worth looking at the market w/o Long Run and Kauto Star in the field, as he’s currently trading at 14/1 with Bet365 ¼ odds 1, 2 and 3 places which looks outstanding value in my book considering they go 16/1 with those two in the field. Get on now each way as even if he finishes 5th we will be picking up. | |||||||||
| 4 |
Diamond Harry |
P/1-45 |
33/1 |
9 | Nick Williams | Noel Fehily | 160 | ||
| A horse with so much ability who has just seemed to lose his way and I’m not sure ground conditions will play to his strengths, as he’s quite a fragile type. Noel Fehily is in the saddle and will be hoping to spring another surprise but I’m not convinced myself. | |||||||||
| 3 |
China Rock |
34P-45 |
50/1 |
9 | M F Morris | A E Lynch | 152 | ||
| Now this horse could be the fly in the ointment as I know connections have been training him for one day – today. He may be short of top class but has a heart and will battle all the way to the line, so at a tasty 40/1 with Paddy Power ¼ odds 1, 2 and 3 places without the front two it looks worth getting involved. | |||||||||
| 13 |
Time For Rupert |
5-2514 |
50/1 |
8 | Paul Webber | Denis O’Regan | 153 | ||
| Looked the real deal last season but has just been found wanting at the top level and again he’s a horse I could not be with in this line up. | |||||||||
| 2 |
Carruthers |
49-31P |
66/1 |
9 | Mark Bradstock | Mattie Batchelor | 151 | ||
| Last year’s Hennessy Gold Cup winner and if he can land this event then there will not be a dry eye in the house but I feel the horse and connections have had their day in the sun. He definitely falls short in this grade but he will be up there from the off and making sure it’s a proper gallop. | |||||||||
| 11 |
The Giant Bolster |
4U7214 |
66/1 |
7 | David Bridgwater | Tom Scudamore | 160 | ||
| No disrespect to connections but I love this horse yet running him in a Gold Cup is ridiculous. He’s a gorgeous mover and could pick up a bit of prize money but I’m convinced there would be suitable targets but as I stated earlier you only get one Cheltenham Gold Cup. | |||||||||
| 6 |
Knockara Beau |
02632 |
100/1 |
9 | George Charlton | Jan Faltejsek | 147 | ||
| A gorgeous horse who always gives his running, probably another short of top class but will be doing all his best work at the finish but I can’t see him bothering the main protagonists. | |||||||||
| 12 |
The Midnight Club |
16-B43 |
100/1 |
11 | Willie Mullins | D J Casey | 145 | ||
| Now an interesting horse and could be this year’s Grand National winner, so if he can pop round and finish 5th or 6th I would be very happy with that and he could head to Aintree as one of the fancied ones. At the time of writing he’s 33/1 with Ladbrokes and Stan James and they may look very big on the day considering he went off favourite for the race last year. | |||||||||
| Cheltenham Gold Cup Odds from bet365: 15-8 Long Run, 7-2 Kauto Star, 13-2 Burton Port, 11 Weird Al, 12 Midnight Chase, 14 Quel Esprit, Synchronised, 20 What A Friend, 33 Diamond Harry, 40 Time For Rupert, 50 China Rock, Carruthers, 66 The Giant Bolster, 80 Konockara Beau, The Midnight Club | |||||||||


