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| Race Overview: Tote Cheltenham Gold Cup Going: Good, Good to Soft in places Distance: 3m 2f 110y |
Preview By Dave Turner from cheltenham-festival.net Unless the heavens open in biblical fashion it seems foolish to desert the reigning champion KAUTO STAR and the Clive Smith-owned superstar can win his third Gold Cup at the main expense of stablemate Denman, with a Paul Nicholls 1-2-3 a realistic possibility. He was made to work hard for 'victory' in the Betfair Chase at Haydock on his first start (I still can't split him and Imperial Commander on the photo print) but was always expected to come on plenty for that.
His subsequent performance at Kempton on Boxing Day, when he won his fourth King George, was a joy to behold and whilst those in behind were not at their best, it was a simply a stunning performance. He has been trained all year for this and is expected to glide to victory.
Connections of stablemate Denman must work out a plan on how to beat the Champion, with a strong gallop forcing him into making errors the obvious route. Reports from the yard have been positive since his error-strewn performance in the Aon Chase but it is hard to be too confident about his link-up with new jockey AP McCoy. On that evidence one of these forceful personalities will have to give way in order for the pair to prevail. Imperial Commander ran such a good race at Haydock that his subsequent defeat at Kempton was a real let down.
Admittedly he made some serious errors early in the race and hopes must be pinned on this course specialist revelling in a return to going left-handed. If he gets the trip (jockey is confident he will) then he could be a real thorn in the side of his more illustrious rivals. Cooldine was emphatic when winning the RSA Chase here twelve months ago but hasn't fired since. His effort behind Joncol in the Lexus was more like it, however that form still leaves him with a mountain to climb and the novice form from last year looks nothing special.
Carruthers is a gallant front-running handicapper and a victory for his owner Lord Oaksey would raise the roof, but it is unlikely, so a bigger danger could be Tricky Trixster, the third-string of the Ditcheat team. He was being given a quiet ride behind Denman before his departure at Newbury and it was only then that his rider got after him. He battled on tremendously to take the race from Niche Market. It would be foolish to think that form would see him within fifty lengths here, but he is open to improvement and whilst the Grand National is his main target, he could easily run on into a place here with stamina a real asset.
My Will is having a prep run for Aintree but he ran a blinder in this last year, whilst Mon Mome is another using this race as a stepping stone to the Grand National and it has worked for horses in the past. Calgary Bay's trainer has admitted that they are tilting at windmills, a comment that must also apply to Mr Pointment and stablemate Cerium. This is no walk in the park for the great Kauto Star, but it is a race that should provide him with his third Gold Cup. |
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| 2010
Cheltenham Tips - Free Bets from UK Bookmakers |
| 1. Don't feel as though you must always take the morning prices. |
Unless you're following one of the really popular and influential newspaper
tipsters, don't feel compelled to take a price on every horse you want
to back. Remember that Cheltenham has the strongest betting ring in the
world meaning that the bookmakers are hugely competitive and it takes
more than a couple of thousand pounds to make an impact. My advice is
to wait until the opening show at least before placing a bet, but only
after — if you have the chance — monitoring the markets throughout
the morning for horses that are on the move. |
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| 2. Bet two horses to win in the major handicaps rather than one each-way. |
| Whenever asked about betting on the National, I always advise punters
to only back each-way if their selection is 33-1 or bigger. At Cheltenham
it's a similar story even though the field sizes don't quite measure up
to the big one at Aintree. Nonetheless many punters back horses each-way
at relatively short prices when a better approach to my mind is to side
with two (or more) win only. The reason for this is that the handicaps
are so hotly contested that it's simply not worth clinging to the hope
of getting a place payout. If you think the best your horse can do is
a place then don't get involved, but if you've found a couple that you
think can win back both to do just that. |
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| 3.
Consider the Tote pools. totesport - FREE £5 to £25 Bet |
| Many supposedly 'pro' punters often don't even give the Tote a second
glance — with good reason as their take-outs are higher than the
bookmakers in the ring and, of course, a sizable bet will often have a
massive impact on the pools. However, at Cheltenham things are slightly
different. Like the betting ring, business is really healthy and if you're
considering backing anything that isn't a strong favourite (or the choice
of a major newspaper tipster) then it's worth taking a look at the odds
on the Tote. |
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| 4. Don't try get lulled into becoming an each-way thief in the Championship
races. |
When the major races 'cut up' — a good example this year is going
to be the Queen Mother Champion Chase — punters often try to seek
out a horse with so called 'each-way value' to squeeze into the frame.
The danger with this is that EVERYTHING at the Festival is trained to
be at its very peak, so the chances of a rank outsider pulling off a massive
shock are always going to be slimmer than they would be in one of the
early-season feature races. Therefore, each-way thieves are effectively
writing off their win portion of the bet straight away, whilst the very
nature of the championship races at Cheltenham is that competition for
the places is going to be almost as tough. The long and the short of it
is only back those you honestly believe can WIN and not those that might
be placed. |
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| 5. Respect previous Cheltenham Festival winners. |
The Festival has unique demands compared to other meetings. The races
are invariably run at a strong pace, which puts a premium on jumping ability
and stamina that contrasts markedly with so many 'prep' races. The latter
— particularly the two-mile hurdles and three mile chases - are
run at a crawl in the early stages meaning that jumping errors don't count
for as much whilst speed is more of an asset than stamina. Cheltenham
turns that on it's head, just look at last year's results: Well Chief,
Hardy Eustace, Maximize, Creon, Azertyuiop, Iris's Gift, Best Mate and
Earthmover had all either won or run creditably at previous festivals.
For that reason, I'm on two previous Festival winners — Back In
Front and Azertyuiop — to repeat the dose in the Champion Hurdle
and Queen Mother Champion Chase in 2010. |
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